CHARLES CHISALA, Lusaka
TODAY Zambians flock to their respective polling stations to cast their vote in the general elections to elect their president, members of Parliament (MPs), executive mayors, council chairpersons and councillors.
By now those who have been closely following Zambian politics are able to see the direction in which the wind is blowing. Only those who have chosen to bury their necks in the sand are harbouring any doubt.
All indications are that President Lungu and the Patriotic Front (PF) are headed for victory. A combination of old and new factors have put Mr Lungu and his party far ahead of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND).
This, however, does not mean the opposition party is a pushover. Over the years, it has gained experience and support to give the PF a good run for its money.
For example, it is banking on the presence of its vice- president for administration Geoffrey Mwamba, popularly known as GBM, former televangelist and now ousted MMD president Nevers Mumba, late President Michael Sata’s son, Mulenga and former Matero MP Miles Sampa to snatch some votes from the PF’s Bemba-speaking strongholds of Muchinga, Northern and Luapula provinces.
The UPND has also campaigned aggressively, covering almost every district. Besides, its ranks have been bolstered by former MMD MPs mainly from North-Western, Eastern and Western provinces.
The other factor that favours the opposition party is the fact that its president Hakainde Hichilema and his running mate, GBM, are successful businessmen who may use their experience to manage the country’s economy.
So, despite its dismal performance in parliamentary by-elections since 2011, the opposition party seems to stand a better chance this time around.
However, these attributes fall far short of wiping out the PF’s advantage, which emanates from a cocktail of geopolitical and sociological factors.
President Lungu is by far a stronger candidate than Mr Hichilema, although the latter has already been declaring himself winner even before the vote is cast.
The huge crowds Mr Lungu has been attracting in Luapula, Northern, Muchinga and Eastern provinces are a clear indication that nothing has changed in the behaviour of the voters.
These provinces are still solidly behind the PF. Nothing has shaken their loyalty. In fact the PF seems to be enjoying the same support it received from these regions in 2011, if not more.
A string of miscalculations, poor choice of the presidential running mate, aggressive, demeaning attitude towards the Presidency, its attacks on the Church and historical demographics have as good as sealed the UPND’s fate.
The party’s disrespectful and confrontational relations with law enforcement agencies, its penchant for violence and uncivil language have eroded its support base.
Mr Mwamba, for example, has not missed an opportunity to hurl the vilest of words at President Lungu and other PF and government leaders.
At his last rally in Kasama a few days ago, he dedicated much of his address to spewing unprintables at the President and threatening to arrest his opponents.
These factors have seemingly eroded much of the respect many Zambians had for the party and confidence in its ability to unite the nation if it was given a chance to govern.
The odds are piled high against the opposition party. It will need a miracle of Old Testament proportions to unseat the PF.
While the PF may lose a few seats to independent candidates, it is still enjoying unshakable support in its traditional strongholds – Luapula, Northern, and Muchinga provinces, and now Eastern Province.
These are the regions that have consistently been cancelling the UPND’s massive votes in its strongholds of Southern, Western and North-Western provinces since 2006, and indications are that they will do the same today.
The UPND clearly enjoyed a huge advantage over a weakened PF in the last presidential election of January 20, 2015. It is, however, facing a rejuvenated and rebranded ruling party today.
This is because the PF has not only fully recovered from the 2015 wrangling but has also formed a formidable alliance with the MMD which has robbed the opposition party’s remotest chance of snatching a seat in Eastern and Central provinces.
The alliance has also given the PF an unshakable foothold in Central Province.
Another factor that has put the PF miles ahead of the UPND is the massive infrastructure development and appointment of former women’s rights activist and community worker Inonge Mutukwa Wina as the first female Vice-President of Zambia.
This has helped the PF to bite away a significant chunk of the UPND’s hitherto unassailable support in Western Province.
As already mentioned, in January 2015 when Zambians flocked to polling stations to replace the late President Michael Sata who had died months earlier, the odds were stacked heavily against the lawyer-turned-politician.
The fierce infighting that followed the death of Mr Sata threatened to rend the ruling party in the middle and strip it of any chance of putting up a decent fight against the UPND.
On the other hand, the opposition party had been campaigning since Mr Sata was flown to London, United Kingdom, for treatment. After the news of his death had been broken, the UPND’s campaign train was in overdrive.
The opposition party’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, was confident that his time, the UPND’s time had finally come. While he and other leaders of his party traversed the breadth and length of the country in relentless campaign, the PF was in the throes of a crippling power struggle.
As the clock ticked towards January 20, the UPND’s leaders and supporters had even changed the way they walked and talked. They were on the threshold of the elusive power that had eluded their party since 2001.
Some leaders and cadres were addressing Mr Hichilema as His Excellency, a title reserved for a sworn-in President, and the man openly revelled in the flattery.
By the time Mr Lungu took control of what had remained of the PF, he had only 20 days in which to campaign. The PF did not have resources to help it reach as many voters as it would have wanted to, yet Mr Hichilema and his party were free-wheeling across the country, campaigning unfettered.
But President Lungu has entered this year’s race fully prepared and has campaigned throughout the campaign period, which kicked off on May 16.
Many ministers and MPs have been systematically depositing money in the ruling party’s accounts besides donations from non-members who either believe in its policies or are simply impressed by its development projects.
His humility and simple, down-to-earth disposition has won the hearts of the huge Christian community, traditional leaders and ordinary, grassroots Zambians who will express their approval of his leadership by voting for him and the PF today.
Looking at the current statistics and at the way Zambians have been voting in the last three national elections, even if the UPND won 100 percent of all the votes in Southern and Western provinces, got 60 percent in North-Western Province and grabbed at least 50 percent apiece in Lusaka and the Copperbelt it will have the PF strongholds to be scared of.
Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces would wipe out its advantage and give the PF a comfortable lead with over 50,000 votes. Of course these are extreme assumptions for it is nigh impossible to the UPND to share Lusaka and the Copperbelt by half.
Whichever way one looks at the picture, the numbers point to Mr Lungu and the PF as the most likely victors.(Daily Mail)
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